Business cycle dating committee national bureau
A variety of measures of real activity grew sharply from the second to the third quarter.
The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.Real gross national product has been roughly stationary, while under normal conditions it would have grown at an annual rate of about 3 percent.Industrial production and employment have actually declined in a substantial fraction of industries.These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the committee in independent research (James Stock and Mark Watson, (available here), real personal income excluding transfers, the payroll and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work in the total economy.The committee places less emphasis on monthly data series for industrial production and manufacturing-trade sales, because these refer to particular sectors of the economy.CAMBRIDGE, October 25 -- NBER's Committee on Business Cycle Dating met today to review developments in the U. The performance of the economy in the third quarter confirmed the Committee's earlier caution.
At its previous meeting in July, the Committee decided to wait until data for the third quarter became available before making a judgement of whether a business cycle peak had occurred in early 1979.
At the same time, industrial production, employment and unemployment remained stable.
In view of the recent strength in the economy, the Committee further postponed any preliminary dating of a peak in the business cycle.
At its meeting, the committee determined that a trough in business activity occurred in the U. The recession lasted 18 months, which makes it the longest of any recession since World War II.
Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.
In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.